วันพุธที่ 27 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2552

Kim Eng Stock Market Prices Recommends Hold STANLY

Thai Stanley Electric (STANLY) - HOLD

Price (Bt) 80.00
Target (Bt) 80.00
Set Index 554.02

Smaller than expected profit for 4Q09 of Bt63mn

4Q09 profit slumps to just Bt63mn (-74% qoq, -80% yoy)
Thai Stanley Electric (STANLY) posted a very weak 4Q09 (Jan – Mar 09)

australian stock market prices
profit of just Bt63mn (EPS Bt0.82), down 74% qoq and 80% yoy, well below our forecast of Bt79mn. This earnings slump comes from the overall weakness of the Thai auto industry with production down 46% yoy (motorcycles down -20% yoy). STANLY sales are around 70% of the automotive sector and 30% in motorcycles, thus STANLY sales fell 34% qoq and 39% yoy to Bt1,368mn in line with the auto industry contraction. The gross margin was 14.3%, down from 20.1% in the previous quarter and 24.8% in the previous year. S.G & A. was down to Bt140mn (-10% qoq, -16% yoy) from the drop in sales. Interest was again zero as STANLY is debt-free. For the full fiscal year 2009, STANLY posted sales of Bt7,894mn, down 5%, and a net profit of Bt1,109mn (EPS Bt14.47), down 14%.

1Q09 earnings still poor with improvement later
The world financial crisis has widened and has severely affected auto demand. For the period Apr – Jun 2009, auto production is expected to continue to fall by 40-50% compared with domestic sales and exports falling by 30%. In 1Q10 STANLY earnings will continue to disappoint. However, in the second half of this year, after inventory stocks have been cleared, production should return to the same level as sales (down yoy 30%). Thus, STANLY earnings after 1Q10 will improve. For the 2010 full year (Apr 2009 – Mar 2010), we have forecast sales to fall 30% to Bt5,535mn and the net profit to reach Bt765mn (EPS Bt9.99), down 31%.

Maintain HOLD with an expected 2009 dividend of Bt4.4
The current share price of Bt80 has seen a strong increase of 76% from the low at Bt45.5 in mid
Mar 2009 on the expectation of an improving auto situation for the second half of the year. The current
share price is trading on a 2010 PER of 8x with an EV/EBITDA of 2.2x and a P/BV 0.9x. STANLY is expected to pay a dividend of Bt4.4 for 2009 earnings or a yield of 5.5%. We estimate the fair value at Bt80 based on a forecast 2010 PER of 8x. The current share price is now equal to our fair value. Overall, we maintain our recommendation of HOLD. We are still confident on the long term potential for STANLY once the auto industry recovers.

Earnings summary
Year End Mar 31 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
Sales (Btmn) 7,907 8,330 7,894 5,535 6,089
EBITDA (Btmn) 2,133 2,406 2,160 1,696 1,847
Normalised earnings (Btmn) 1,129 1,300 1,102 765 11
Earnings (Btmn) 1,152 1,296 1,109 765 874
EPS (Bt) 15.03 16.91 14.47 9.99 11.4
PER (x) 5.3 4.7 5.5 8 7
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8
CF/share (Bt) 23 26 24.3 19.6 21.1
BVPS (Bt) 67 79.1 88.2 93.9 102.3
P/BV (x) 1.2 1 0.9 0.9 0.8
DPS (Bt) 4.85 5.3 4.4 3 6.25
Dividend yield (%) 6.10% 6.60% 5.50% 3.70% 7.80%
Net debt/equity (x) Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash
ROA (%) 19.10% 18.50% 14.70% 9.80% 10.40%
ROE (%) 24.30% 23.20% 17.30% 11.00% 11.60%
Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.

By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 25, 2009

australian stock market prices
Major USA Cities

Nashville-Davidson Tennessee,Norfolk Virginia,Boston Massachusetts,Anchorage Alaska,Durham North Carolina ,Los Angeles California,Oakland California,Henderson Nevada,Houston Texas ,Riverside California,Oyster Bay New York,Chula Vista California ,Minneapolis Minnesota,Arlington Texas ,St. Petersburg Florida ,New Orleans Louisiana ,Pittsburgh Pennsylvania,Virginia Beach Virginia ,Memphis Tennessee,Cleveland Ohio,Albuquerque New Mexico ,Newark New Jersey ,Indianapolis Indiana,Oklahoma City Oklahoma ,Scottsdale Arizona,Chesapeake Virginia,Detroit Michigan,Fort Wayne Indiana ,Chandler Arizona,Rochester New York ,El Paso Texas ,Tucson Arizona,Birmingham Alabama,Jersey City New Jersey,Islip New York ,Lincoln Nebraska,Modesto California,Lubbock Texas,Portland Oregon ,Hempstead New York ,Phoenix Arizona ,Philadelphia Pennsylvania ,Reno Nevada,San Antonio Texas,Las Vegas Nevada ,Lexington-Fayette Kentucky,Corpus Christi Texas ,Hialeah Florida,Tulsa Oklahoma,Dallas Texas ,North Hempstead New York,Fresno California,Jacksonville Florida,Baltimore Maryland,Milwaukee Wisconsin,Babylon New York ,Santa Ana California ,Buffalo New York ,Tampa Florida,Columbus Ohio,New York New york,Denver Colorado,Charlotte North Carolina ,Miami Florida,Akron Ohio,Brookhaven New York ,Orlando Florida,Cincinnati Ohio,Madison Wisconsin,Mesa Arizona,Long Beach California ,Bakersfield California,Garland Texas,Chicago Illinois ,Plano Texas,Toledo Ohio,Washington District of Columbia,Sacramento California,San Jose California ,Aurora Colorado,Greensboro North Carolina ,San Diego ,St. Louis Missouri ,Stockton California,Raleigh North Carolina ,Seattle Washington,Baton Rouge Louisiana ,Anaheim California,Omaha Nebraska,Wichita Kansas ,Laredo Texas,Colorado Springs Colorado ,Honolulu Hawaii,Austin Texas,Fort Worth Texas ,Glendale Arizona,Atlanta Georgia,Kansas City Missouri ,St. Paul Minnesota ,San Francisco California

ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:

แสดงความคิดเห็น